Thursday, December 21, 2006
Happy Holidays!
A Citizens Blog is going to hiberate for the next few days, but expect me to return on Wednesday, December 27th, 2006. In the interim, I leave you with a clip from my favorite Christmas TV show, A Charlie Brown Christmas.
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Wednesday, December 20, 2006
Rotation Thoughts, Part IV: Brett Myers
I won’t make any comments about the Boston incident other than to say that it doesn’t suggest good things about Brett Myers character. Sadly, character is very little about baseball. Ty Cobb was a miserable human being and he still made the Hall of Fame. Barry Bonds’ personality has been radioactive for baseball, but he’s still worth millions to the Giants, even though he treats the fans who pay his salary with contempt and derision.
Brett Myers had a heckuva good year for the Phillies and seems poised to continue to do so for many, many years into the future.
When Brett Myers started as a starter with the Phillies in 2003 he pitched well (14-9, 4.43 ERA), but then struggled in 2004 when the team moved to Citizens. He surrendered 31 home runs that season and got shelled, his 11-11 record not nearly the indication of how awful he pitched: 5.52 ERA. What surprised me about Myers ’04 campaign were those 31 home runs. It was a very Eric Milton-esque performance, but Eric Milton was a fly ball pitcher (0.57 G/F in 2004). Myers was not:
G/F ratio:
2003: 1.85
2004: 1.41
2005: 1.46
2006: 1.25
Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined:
ERA – Earned Run Average: (Earned Runs * 9) / IP = ERA
FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching: (13*HR+3*BB-2*K / IP) + League Factor Evaluates a pitching by how he would have done with an average defense behind him by keeping track of things that a pitcher can control (walks, strikeouts, home runs allowed) as opposed to things he cannot (hits allowed, runs allowed).
G/F – Groundball-to-Flyball ratio.
HR/9 – Home Runs allowed per nine innings: (HR * 9) / IP
K/9 – Strikeouts per nine innings: (K * 9) / IP
BB/9 – Walks per nine innings: (BB * 9) / IP
In ‘04 I had stated that Brett Myer’s 31 home runs allowed were a fluke. He’d do better than that in 2005, I stated, if he throws the same number of groundballs. I was correct: Brett Myers lowered his home runs allowed per nine innings from 1.59 to 1.30, however my thesis – that the home runs allowed by Myers were a fluke – was wrong. Brett Myers struck out many, many more batters in 2005 than he had in 2004. None of those balls were put into play and thus, none were hit for home runs. The percentage of Myers flyballs and groundballs were virtually identical from ’04 to ’05:
Groundballs / Flyballs
2004: 272 / 193
2005: 278 / 191
As I noted, Myers struck more guys out in ’05: Myers faced 778 batters in 2004 and 905 in 2005, an increase of 127. Myers increased his strikeouts from 116 to 208, so of those extra 127 batters he faced, he struck 92 of them out. The percentage of home runs allowed from fly balls was virtually the same from 2004 to 2005: 16.1% to 16.2%. In fact, it was actually worse in 2005 because he surrendered the same number of home runs in two fewer fly balls. Myers did a better job in 2006, allowing just 29 home runs on 205 fly balls (14.1%).
To give you an idea about how the Phillies other pitchers did: Cole Hamels allowed 19 home runs on 143 fly balls (13.3%). Jon Lieber allowed 27 home runs on 202 fly balls in 2006: 13.4%. When the ball is put into play in the air, Myers is pretty likely to see it sky out of the field of play for a home run. It is a flaw to his game.
As I noted above, Myers became a strikeout artist in 2005. It was a major departure from the norm in his game. In 2003 and 2004 Myers had been a good, solid pitcher who got lots of strikeouts. Suddenly in ’05 and ’06 he became a lights-out strikeout artist:
K/9 - K/BB ratio
2003: 6.67 / 1.88
2004: 5.93 / 1.87
2005: 8.69 / 3.06
2006: 8.59 / 3.00
Myers strikeout rate is a major jump. You can also detect a slight downturn in the number of walks he allows:
BB/9:
2003: 3.54
2004: 3.17
2005: 2.84
2006: 2.86
Myers ability to cut down on the walks and ramp up the strikeouts is very impressive. As you can see, he’s made major strides since ’04:
FIP ERA:
2004: 5.01
2005: 3.99
2006: 4.17
So is Brett Myers really the Phillies ace? The team is clearly Cole Hamels to lead, but Myers performance the last two years has been very, very good, much better in fact than people generally realized. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least to see the Phillies find that Myers is their most effective pitcher in 2007, particularly if Cole Hamels were to get injured or if he struggles. Let’s hope Myers head is clear as their season unfolds because he could turn out to be the Phillies biggest surprise in ’07.
Conclusions: I think the Phillies rotation is rock-solid with no holes. Maybe Adam Eaton will struggle a little, but I doubt it. Myers and Hamels will continue to be their dominating selves, and Freddy Garcia is going to be a hard guy to get much of anything off of. Jamie Moyer will continue to dazzle with his off-speed junk, and Eaton will hopefully put together a nice season. I’m not saying that the Phillies will have the best rotation in the N.L. – that is going to be the L.A. Dodgers – but they will have one of the best. Let’s bring on Opening Day!
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Brett Myers had a heckuva good year for the Phillies and seems poised to continue to do so for many, many years into the future.
When Brett Myers started as a starter with the Phillies in 2003 he pitched well (14-9, 4.43 ERA), but then struggled in 2004 when the team moved to Citizens. He surrendered 31 home runs that season and got shelled, his 11-11 record not nearly the indication of how awful he pitched: 5.52 ERA. What surprised me about Myers ’04 campaign were those 31 home runs. It was a very Eric Milton-esque performance, but Eric Milton was a fly ball pitcher (0.57 G/F in 2004). Myers was not:
G/F ratio:
2003: 1.85
2004: 1.41
2005: 1.46
2006: 1.25
Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined:
ERA – Earned Run Average: (Earned Runs * 9) / IP = ERA
FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching: (13*HR+3*BB-2*K / IP) + League Factor Evaluates a pitching by how he would have done with an average defense behind him by keeping track of things that a pitcher can control (walks, strikeouts, home runs allowed) as opposed to things he cannot (hits allowed, runs allowed).
G/F – Groundball-to-Flyball ratio.
HR/9 – Home Runs allowed per nine innings: (HR * 9) / IP
K/9 – Strikeouts per nine innings: (K * 9) / IP
BB/9 – Walks per nine innings: (BB * 9) / IP
In ‘04 I had stated that Brett Myer’s 31 home runs allowed were a fluke. He’d do better than that in 2005, I stated, if he throws the same number of groundballs. I was correct: Brett Myers lowered his home runs allowed per nine innings from 1.59 to 1.30, however my thesis – that the home runs allowed by Myers were a fluke – was wrong. Brett Myers struck out many, many more batters in 2005 than he had in 2004. None of those balls were put into play and thus, none were hit for home runs. The percentage of Myers flyballs and groundballs were virtually identical from ’04 to ’05:
Groundballs / Flyballs
2004: 272 / 193
2005: 278 / 191
As I noted, Myers struck more guys out in ’05: Myers faced 778 batters in 2004 and 905 in 2005, an increase of 127. Myers increased his strikeouts from 116 to 208, so of those extra 127 batters he faced, he struck 92 of them out. The percentage of home runs allowed from fly balls was virtually the same from 2004 to 2005: 16.1% to 16.2%. In fact, it was actually worse in 2005 because he surrendered the same number of home runs in two fewer fly balls. Myers did a better job in 2006, allowing just 29 home runs on 205 fly balls (14.1%).
To give you an idea about how the Phillies other pitchers did: Cole Hamels allowed 19 home runs on 143 fly balls (13.3%). Jon Lieber allowed 27 home runs on 202 fly balls in 2006: 13.4%. When the ball is put into play in the air, Myers is pretty likely to see it sky out of the field of play for a home run. It is a flaw to his game.
As I noted above, Myers became a strikeout artist in 2005. It was a major departure from the norm in his game. In 2003 and 2004 Myers had been a good, solid pitcher who got lots of strikeouts. Suddenly in ’05 and ’06 he became a lights-out strikeout artist:
K/9 - K/BB ratio
2003: 6.67 / 1.88
2004: 5.93 / 1.87
2005: 8.69 / 3.06
2006: 8.59 / 3.00
Myers strikeout rate is a major jump. You can also detect a slight downturn in the number of walks he allows:
BB/9:
2003: 3.54
2004: 3.17
2005: 2.84
2006: 2.86
Myers ability to cut down on the walks and ramp up the strikeouts is very impressive. As you can see, he’s made major strides since ’04:
FIP ERA:
2004: 5.01
2005: 3.99
2006: 4.17
So is Brett Myers really the Phillies ace? The team is clearly Cole Hamels to lead, but Myers performance the last two years has been very, very good, much better in fact than people generally realized. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least to see the Phillies find that Myers is their most effective pitcher in 2007, particularly if Cole Hamels were to get injured or if he struggles. Let’s hope Myers head is clear as their season unfolds because he could turn out to be the Phillies biggest surprise in ’07.
Conclusions: I think the Phillies rotation is rock-solid with no holes. Maybe Adam Eaton will struggle a little, but I doubt it. Myers and Hamels will continue to be their dominating selves, and Freddy Garcia is going to be a hard guy to get much of anything off of. Jamie Moyer will continue to dazzle with his off-speed junk, and Eaton will hopefully put together a nice season. I’m not saying that the Phillies will have the best rotation in the N.L. – that is going to be the L.A. Dodgers – but they will have one of the best. Let’s bring on Opening Day!
Tuesday, December 19, 2006
Rotation Thoughts, Part III: Freddy Garcia
Yesterday I categorized the Phillies decision to sign Adam Eaton to a 3-year, $24 mil deal as being a “wildcard”. I am not entirely sure that Eaton, a former Phillies first-round pick, will be entirely worth the investment despite the fact that he has sterling talent. Eaton’s performance in ’05 & ’06 were somewhat suspect, I noted, although he turned in a wonderful performance in 2004 and shows flashes of brilliance here and there.
As for Freddy Garcia, I have nothing but praise. If Garcia doesn’t have a good season for the Phillies, I will be stunned.
To get Freddy Garcia the Phillies surrendered busted superstar Gavin Floyd as well as prospect Gio Gonzalez, who spent the ’06 campaign honing his skills in Double-A Reading for the Reading Phillies. Gonzalez might be a spectacular pitcher one day. Maybe Floyd will regain his form and give the White Sox a formidable one-two punch, but I doubt that Gavin Floyd was ever going to be a productive pitcher for the Phillies, and I think dealing a Double-A starter for a proven stud pitcher is a smart deal, especially with so many talented Phillies pitchers currently in Single-A.
To give you an idea about what the Phillies gave up to get Garcia, here are Gonzalez and Floyd’s minor league stats:
Gavin Floyd: Scranton Red Barons (AAA)
W-L: 7-4
ERA: 4.23
HR/9: 0.70
BB/9: 2.97
K/9: 6.65
K/BB: 2.24
Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined:
ERA – Earned Run Average: (Earned Runs * 9) / IP = ERA
FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching: (13*HR+3*BB-2*K / IP) + League Factor Evaluates a pitching by how he would have done with an average defense behind him by keeping track of things that a pitcher can control (walks, strikeouts, home runs allowed) as opposed to things he cannot (hits allowed, runs allowed).
G/F – Groundball-to-Flyball ratio.
HR/9 – Home Runs allowed per nine innings: (HR * 9) / IP
K/9 – Strikeouts per nine innings: (K * 9) / IP
BB/9 – Walks per nine innings: (BB * 9) / IP
Not bad, but the Phillies other Triple-A starters had better ERAs: Eude Brito (3.17), Jeremy Cummings (3.97), and Brian Mazzone (2.03). As for Gonzalez, the Phillies are giving up a pitcher with tremendous potential:
Gio Gonzalez: Reading Phillies (AA)
W-L: 7-12
ERA: 4.66
HR/9: 1.40
BB/9: 4.71
K/9: 9.66
K/BB: 2.05
As I said, Gonzalez has a lot of potential – he’s rated as one of the top pitching prospects in baseball – but his stats don’t live up to the story. He could be a bust and Gavin Floyd could never get his groove back, in which case I think people will rate this deal as a major coup for Pat Gillick.
And as I noted, I don’t think parting with Floyd and Gonzalez is a big deal because there are so many good pitching prospects in the minors for the Phillies. Not many people realize this, but three of the Phillies six minor league affiliates led their respective leagues in ERA in 2006: the Red Barons in the Triple-A International League, the Lakewood Blue Claws in the Single-A South Atlantic League, and the Batavia Muckdogs in the short-season Single-A New York-Penn League. There is a lot of talent out there and with the Phillies rotation set for the time-being, the team can afford to deal some prospects and let the talent down in Lakewood and Williamsport (the franchise that replaced the Muckdogs as the Phillies NY-Penn League affiliate) start to bloom.*
*As you might guess from my notes on the Phillies minor leaguers, I am in the process of writing a massive review of the Phillies minor league franchises.
So what are the Phillies getting with Freddy Garcia? Check it out:
2006: White Sox
FIP: 4.66
HR/9: 1.33
BB/9: 2.00
K/9: 5.61
K/BB: 2.81
And …
2005: White Sox
FIP: 4.05
HR/9: 1.03
BB/9: 2.37
K/9: 5.76
K/BB: 2.43
These are some sterling stats. Garcia is a good power pitcher who gets K’s and doesn’t allow many walks at all. As I’ve said in the past, the Phillies need groundball-oriented pitchers who don’t issue free walks in order to succeed at Citizens Bank Ballpark. As you can see, that is what he does:
G/F ratio:
2006: 1.07
2005: 1.60
2004: 1.34 (CWS)
2004: 1.02 (Seattle)
What impressed me was how Garcia went from playing in a pitchers park like Safeco Field to a hitters park like U.S. Cellular Field with little apparent effect on his stats:
’04: Mariners / White Sox
FIP: 3.52 / 3.96
HR/9: 0.67 / 1.22
BB/9: 2.69 / 2.79
K/9: 6.90 / 8.91
K/BB: 2.56 / 3.19
Aside from an understandable uptick in Home Runs that season (in 2004 U.S. Cellular had a Home Run Park Factor of 131, making it the easiest park to hit a home run in, aside from the North Side’s Wrigley Field at 138), Garcia pitched better with the White Sox that season.
Another benefit of bringing Freddy Garcia aboard: playoff experience. Brett Myers playoff experience? Zero. Cole Hamels? Nada. Freddy Garcia has hurled fifty-five innings in nine playoff starts, going 6-2. He won his only World Series start, scattering four hits and three walks in seven shutout innings, on his way to striking seven Astros out. His playoff experience could be a major, major benefit if and when the Phillies make it into the NLDS.
I think this was a great move on the part of Pat Gillick and was a major victory for the team. Oh sure, Gavin Floyd and Gio Gonzalez could combine and become a latter-day Don Drysdale and Sandy Koufax duo with the Phillies luck, but I doubt it. I think the Phillies have bought themselves a stud pitcher who can give them 200+ quality innings in 2007. The Phillies might lose in for ’08 (this is Garcia’s walk year), but in the here and now the Phillies are a much better team with Freddy Garcia in the rotation.
Tomorrow, let’s talk about Brett Myers.
(2) comments
As for Freddy Garcia, I have nothing but praise. If Garcia doesn’t have a good season for the Phillies, I will be stunned.
To get Freddy Garcia the Phillies surrendered busted superstar Gavin Floyd as well as prospect Gio Gonzalez, who spent the ’06 campaign honing his skills in Double-A Reading for the Reading Phillies. Gonzalez might be a spectacular pitcher one day. Maybe Floyd will regain his form and give the White Sox a formidable one-two punch, but I doubt that Gavin Floyd was ever going to be a productive pitcher for the Phillies, and I think dealing a Double-A starter for a proven stud pitcher is a smart deal, especially with so many talented Phillies pitchers currently in Single-A.
To give you an idea about what the Phillies gave up to get Garcia, here are Gonzalez and Floyd’s minor league stats:
Gavin Floyd: Scranton Red Barons (AAA)
W-L: 7-4
ERA: 4.23
HR/9: 0.70
BB/9: 2.97
K/9: 6.65
K/BB: 2.24
Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined:
ERA – Earned Run Average: (Earned Runs * 9) / IP = ERA
FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching: (13*HR+3*BB-2*K / IP) + League Factor Evaluates a pitching by how he would have done with an average defense behind him by keeping track of things that a pitcher can control (walks, strikeouts, home runs allowed) as opposed to things he cannot (hits allowed, runs allowed).
G/F – Groundball-to-Flyball ratio.
HR/9 – Home Runs allowed per nine innings: (HR * 9) / IP
K/9 – Strikeouts per nine innings: (K * 9) / IP
BB/9 – Walks per nine innings: (BB * 9) / IP
Not bad, but the Phillies other Triple-A starters had better ERAs: Eude Brito (3.17), Jeremy Cummings (3.97), and Brian Mazzone (2.03). As for Gonzalez, the Phillies are giving up a pitcher with tremendous potential:
Gio Gonzalez: Reading Phillies (AA)
W-L: 7-12
ERA: 4.66
HR/9: 1.40
BB/9: 4.71
K/9: 9.66
K/BB: 2.05
As I said, Gonzalez has a lot of potential – he’s rated as one of the top pitching prospects in baseball – but his stats don’t live up to the story. He could be a bust and Gavin Floyd could never get his groove back, in which case I think people will rate this deal as a major coup for Pat Gillick.
And as I noted, I don’t think parting with Floyd and Gonzalez is a big deal because there are so many good pitching prospects in the minors for the Phillies. Not many people realize this, but three of the Phillies six minor league affiliates led their respective leagues in ERA in 2006: the Red Barons in the Triple-A International League, the Lakewood Blue Claws in the Single-A South Atlantic League, and the Batavia Muckdogs in the short-season Single-A New York-Penn League. There is a lot of talent out there and with the Phillies rotation set for the time-being, the team can afford to deal some prospects and let the talent down in Lakewood and Williamsport (the franchise that replaced the Muckdogs as the Phillies NY-Penn League affiliate) start to bloom.*
*As you might guess from my notes on the Phillies minor leaguers, I am in the process of writing a massive review of the Phillies minor league franchises.
So what are the Phillies getting with Freddy Garcia? Check it out:
2006: White Sox
FIP: 4.66
HR/9: 1.33
BB/9: 2.00
K/9: 5.61
K/BB: 2.81
And …
2005: White Sox
FIP: 4.05
HR/9: 1.03
BB/9: 2.37
K/9: 5.76
K/BB: 2.43
These are some sterling stats. Garcia is a good power pitcher who gets K’s and doesn’t allow many walks at all. As I’ve said in the past, the Phillies need groundball-oriented pitchers who don’t issue free walks in order to succeed at Citizens Bank Ballpark. As you can see, that is what he does:
G/F ratio:
2006: 1.07
2005: 1.60
2004: 1.34 (CWS)
2004: 1.02 (Seattle)
What impressed me was how Garcia went from playing in a pitchers park like Safeco Field to a hitters park like U.S. Cellular Field with little apparent effect on his stats:
’04: Mariners / White Sox
FIP: 3.52 / 3.96
HR/9: 0.67 / 1.22
BB/9: 2.69 / 2.79
K/9: 6.90 / 8.91
K/BB: 2.56 / 3.19
Aside from an understandable uptick in Home Runs that season (in 2004 U.S. Cellular had a Home Run Park Factor of 131, making it the easiest park to hit a home run in, aside from the North Side’s Wrigley Field at 138), Garcia pitched better with the White Sox that season.
Another benefit of bringing Freddy Garcia aboard: playoff experience. Brett Myers playoff experience? Zero. Cole Hamels? Nada. Freddy Garcia has hurled fifty-five innings in nine playoff starts, going 6-2. He won his only World Series start, scattering four hits and three walks in seven shutout innings, on his way to striking seven Astros out. His playoff experience could be a major, major benefit if and when the Phillies make it into the NLDS.
I think this was a great move on the part of Pat Gillick and was a major victory for the team. Oh sure, Gavin Floyd and Gio Gonzalez could combine and become a latter-day Don Drysdale and Sandy Koufax duo with the Phillies luck, but I doubt it. I think the Phillies have bought themselves a stud pitcher who can give them 200+ quality innings in 2007. The Phillies might lose in for ’08 (this is Garcia’s walk year), but in the here and now the Phillies are a much better team with Freddy Garcia in the rotation.
Tomorrow, let’s talk about Brett Myers.
Monday, December 18, 2006
Rotation Thoughts, Part II: Adam Eaton
Along with Freddy Garcia, the subject of tomorrow’s post, Adam Eaton is the Phillies major acquisition of this off-season. As everyone who has watched the Phillies over the last several seasons has probably sensed, this team needs some help with its starting pitching. Eric Milton, lord of the two-run home run, was not the answer. Ryan Franklin, lord of the three-run home run, was not the answer. To bolster the rotation the Phillies have made some hard choices, choosing to allow Randy Wolf to walk to the Dodgers rather than re-sign with the Phillies, and making deals to acquire guys like Garica and Eaton. Is Eaton the answer? What are the Phillies getting with Eaton?
For $24 million dollars over three years the Phillies are either getting an experienced starter with a nice track record of success, or they are getting a total dud of a pitcher.
Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined:
ERA – Earned Run Average: (Earned Runs * 9) / IP = ERA
FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching: (13*HR+3*BB-2*K / IP) + League Factor Evaluates a pitching by how he would have done with an average defense behind him by keeping track of things that a pitcher can control (walks, strikeouts, home runs allowed) as opposed to things he cannot (hits allowed, runs allowed).
HR/9 – Home Runs allowed per nine innings: (HR * 9) / IP
K/9 – Strikeouts per nine innings: (K * 9) / IP
BB/9 – Walks per nine innings: (BB * 9) / IP
There isn’t a whole lot of recent data for us to consider. Eaton only hurled 65 innings for the Rangers in 2006. Here is how he did:
2006
ERA: 5.12
FIP: 5.43
HR/9: 1.52
BB/9: 3.32
K/9: 5.95
Naturally Adam Eaton wasn’t 100% that season, so these numbers are a little off in terms of what his talent level is. Eaton threw just 128 & 1/3 innings in 2005, but he threw 199 in 2004. Check out his stats from ’04 & ’05:
2004 / 2005
ERA: 4.61 / 4.27
FIP: 4.12 / 3.84
HR/9: 1.26 / 0.98
BB/9: 2.34 / 3.07
K/9: 6.91 / 6.99
The wildly differing home run rates from ’04 & ’05 as compared to ‘06 are probably a product of the differences between Petco Field in San Diego and the Ballpark at Arlington, the former being a pitchers paradise and the latter a pitchers nightmare. So evaluating Eaton is a little tricky. Will the Phillies get the guy who gave up eleven home runs in 65 innings with the Rangers? Or the guy who gave up just fourteen in 128+ innings with the Padres in 2005?
I frankly don’t know. As I looked through Eaton’s stats it struck me that he’s generally done an o.k. job at not surrendering home runs, even prior to 2004 when the Padres moved into Petco Park. He’s a bit of a strikeout artist and reminds me a lot of Brett Myers, whom he’ll be joining in the Phillies rotation. I like that the Phillies are replacing guys who controlled the game with off-speed stuff with guys who get strikeouts like Eaton: the fewer balls the Phillies pitching staff allows to be put into play, the better. The Phillies defense suffered a breakdown in 2006 and Citizens is unforgiving to pitchers who make mistakes.
Of course, Eaton has never thrown 200+ innings in a season. In his seven major league seasons he threw 140+ innings just twice (183 in 2003, and 199 in 2004). So durability is a concern.
Another concern is Eaton’s groundball/flyball ratio. In order for the Phillies to succeed they need groundball-oriented pitchers who don’t issue free walks in order to survive at Citizens Bank Ballpark. I’m not sure Eaton is a good fit for those needs:
G/F ratio
2003: 1.26
2004: 0.89
2005: 1.13
2006: 0.98
I’m not saying that Eaton will be Eric Milton, The Sequel, but he could get lit up.
I think Eaton will be a good starter for the Phillies, but a wildcard at times. I don’t think he’ll be as dominant as Cole Hamels or Myers, but he’s got good stuff and will help the Phillies out by getting strikeouts and keeping runners off base. I look at Eaton’s signing as a positive move and definitely a decision that upgraded the Phillies rotation. Tomorrow we’ll talk a little about Freddy Garcia.
Scope out The Bird Blog today for my thoughts on the Eagles-Giants game.
(0) comments
For $24 million dollars over three years the Phillies are either getting an experienced starter with a nice track record of success, or they are getting a total dud of a pitcher.
Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined:
ERA – Earned Run Average: (Earned Runs * 9) / IP = ERA
FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching: (13*HR+3*BB-2*K / IP) + League Factor Evaluates a pitching by how he would have done with an average defense behind him by keeping track of things that a pitcher can control (walks, strikeouts, home runs allowed) as opposed to things he cannot (hits allowed, runs allowed).
HR/9 – Home Runs allowed per nine innings: (HR * 9) / IP
K/9 – Strikeouts per nine innings: (K * 9) / IP
BB/9 – Walks per nine innings: (BB * 9) / IP
There isn’t a whole lot of recent data for us to consider. Eaton only hurled 65 innings for the Rangers in 2006. Here is how he did:
2006
ERA: 5.12
FIP: 5.43
HR/9: 1.52
BB/9: 3.32
K/9: 5.95
Naturally Adam Eaton wasn’t 100% that season, so these numbers are a little off in terms of what his talent level is. Eaton threw just 128 & 1/3 innings in 2005, but he threw 199 in 2004. Check out his stats from ’04 & ’05:
2004 / 2005
ERA: 4.61 / 4.27
FIP: 4.12 / 3.84
HR/9: 1.26 / 0.98
BB/9: 2.34 / 3.07
K/9: 6.91 / 6.99
The wildly differing home run rates from ’04 & ’05 as compared to ‘06 are probably a product of the differences between Petco Field in San Diego and the Ballpark at Arlington, the former being a pitchers paradise and the latter a pitchers nightmare. So evaluating Eaton is a little tricky. Will the Phillies get the guy who gave up eleven home runs in 65 innings with the Rangers? Or the guy who gave up just fourteen in 128+ innings with the Padres in 2005?
I frankly don’t know. As I looked through Eaton’s stats it struck me that he’s generally done an o.k. job at not surrendering home runs, even prior to 2004 when the Padres moved into Petco Park. He’s a bit of a strikeout artist and reminds me a lot of Brett Myers, whom he’ll be joining in the Phillies rotation. I like that the Phillies are replacing guys who controlled the game with off-speed stuff with guys who get strikeouts like Eaton: the fewer balls the Phillies pitching staff allows to be put into play, the better. The Phillies defense suffered a breakdown in 2006 and Citizens is unforgiving to pitchers who make mistakes.
Of course, Eaton has never thrown 200+ innings in a season. In his seven major league seasons he threw 140+ innings just twice (183 in 2003, and 199 in 2004). So durability is a concern.
Another concern is Eaton’s groundball/flyball ratio. In order for the Phillies to succeed they need groundball-oriented pitchers who don’t issue free walks in order to survive at Citizens Bank Ballpark. I’m not sure Eaton is a good fit for those needs:
G/F ratio
2003: 1.26
2004: 0.89
2005: 1.13
2006: 0.98
I’m not saying that Eaton will be Eric Milton, The Sequel, but he could get lit up.
I think Eaton will be a good starter for the Phillies, but a wildcard at times. I don’t think he’ll be as dominant as Cole Hamels or Myers, but he’s got good stuff and will help the Phillies out by getting strikeouts and keeping runners off base. I look at Eaton’s signing as a positive move and definitely a decision that upgraded the Phillies rotation. Tomorrow we’ll talk a little about Freddy Garcia.
Scope out The Bird Blog today for my thoughts on the Eagles-Giants game.
